Announcing Contrary's 2026 Tech Trends Report
Computational intelligence, industrialization, breakthrough biologics, digital interfaces, and more
Contrary is a talent and research-driven investment firm. We believe that at the root of every iconic company is one thing: extraordinary people. As extraordinary people build companies, they build on top of foundational trends that are shaping the world around us. But just as important as the fundamental forces driving technology are the second-order effects of those trends.
Each year, our Tech Trends Report isolates the most important currents within technology and the way social behavior forms around them. This report is meant to both isolate the foundational concepts and hint at the progressing second-order effects they could cause. Because that’s where opportunity lies.
This year, we focused on five key categories where technology is reshaping the world: (1) Computational Intelligence, (2) Resources, (3) Industrialization, (4) Medicine & Healthcare, and (5) Digital Interfaces & Experiences.
What are the latest developments shaping the world going forward? Each section explores key developments in the category and, more importantly, where the cutting edges within them lie. Some paint a compelling picture of accelerating progress, while others represent a much bleaker outlook of problems getting worse. Whether the report creates a sense of optimism or opportunity for problems to solve, the goal is make the forces shaping the world more legible.
The surface area of the report is deliberately broad to cover the trends that we’re seeing have the most impact.
Here are some of the key insights included in the report across each category:
Computational Intelligence
By May 2025, only ~10% of companies across all industries had adopted AI at least somewhat into their products or services.
~60% of public CEOs say AI projects haven’t delivered positive ROI yet, even though 68% say they plan to increase AI spending in 2026.
There are four coding agents that will soon be at $1 billion in ARR: GitHub Copilot, Claude Code, Cursor, and OpenAI’s Codex.
Overall AI capex, spanning traditional data centers, cloud computing, and AI infrastructure, is expected to reach $1.3 trillion by 2027. If current demand holds steady, it will result in a total of $5.2 trillion in capex over the next five years, representing 17% of global GDP (almost 3x the dot-com or the AI investment since 2020).
Resources
China overtook the US’s total energy production 15 years ago, back in 2010. In 2025, China produced twice as much energy as the US.
Data centers used 4% of the US’s total energy in 2024; this is expected to more than double by 2030. But there could be a 40% gap between supply and demand for data center energy by next year.
Renewable energy growth in the US is being driven by wind and solar. Wind power grew 75x between 2000 and 2024, and solar grew 600x over the same period. Despite this, China now produces almost three times as much solar energy as the US (834TWh vs. 303 TWh).
In the US and Europe, carbon emissions peaked in 2007 and have been steadily declining ever since. However, global carbon emissions are still growing, driven by an explosion of emissions in China, which now emits more carbon than the US and Europe combined and shows no signs of slowing down.
Industrialization
The 10 major shipyards in the US only produce ~0.04% of global output. At the same time, just one of China’s 13 major shipyards has more capacity than the entire US. China is planning to increase its shipbuilding capacity by 80% by 2027.
Starlink satellites now make up the majority of satellites in low Earth orbit, with over 8,700 Starlink satellites active and in orbit as of October 2025. SpaceX has been approved by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) to fly up to 12,000 satellites, and the company has said it aspires to eventually fly over 42,000.
U.S. cities with 1M+ people dedicate 22%+ of available land to parking space on average. AVs could free up that space by improving parking capacity by 80%.
Medicine & Healthcare
The market for GLP-1s has grown dramatically, and is predicted to continue growing at over 10% annually, with 18% of US adults now taking a GLP-1 medication of some form.
Digital Interfaces & Experiences
Since 1960, declining birth rates have been due mainly to couples having fewer children. Beginning in 2000 and steadily increasing through the present, the decline has been driven by fewer couples being formed instead.
For the first time since 1790, the average number of people per American household is increasing instead of decreasing. Even as couples have fewer children, those they do have are living at home longer.
As global life expectancy increases and birth rates fall, the share of the population above retirement age (65) has increased to nearly 20%, and is projected to reach nearly 25% by 2050.
Mobile gaming revenue in 2025 surpassed PC and console gaming revenue combined.
For the first time ever, advertisers in the US spent more on social media video advertising than traditional TV advertising in 2025.
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