Intel and the Rise of US Tech Nationalization
Research Rundown #154, plus new memos on 1X, PsiQuantum and more.
Research Rundown
In August 2025, the Trump administration announced a landmark $8.9 billion purchase of a 10% equity stake in Intel. Unlike earlier episodes of government intervention in private industry, Intel was not insolvent — it remained the United States’ only contender in advanced semiconductor fabrication. The decision to buy in signaled that Washington now views chipmaking capacity itself as a national security asset.
This move sets Intel apart as the precedent for what could become a new model of industrial policy: direct government ownership in strategic supply chains. With Taiwan producing over 90% of the world’s most advanced chips and China employing a long-term state-led model, the U.S. may be edging toward its own form of state capitalism. The central question is whether this marks a pragmatic adaptation to geopolitical realities or the beginning of a broader transformation in the relationship between government and private industry.
Read the full deep dive on how the Intel deal could define America’s future in tech nationalization here.
1X is transforming everyday life with NEO, a humanoid robot designed to assist with household chores and learn alongside its human companions. Read our memo here for everything you need to know.
Could PsiQuantum’s quantum computing breakthroughs finally make large-scale, error-free quantum computers a reality? Find out more in our memo here.
Addepar is quietly reshaping how wealth managers see and manage complex portfolios. Check out the full memo here to learn more.
Mercor targets a $10 billion valuation on $450 million run rate. The two-year-old startup connecting domain experts to train frontier models is in Series C talks and says it’s already profitable, with revenue concentrated among top labs. The $10 billion valuation it’s targeting is $2 billion more than the target valuation the company discussed months ago.
Cohere achieves a $7 billion valuation and partners with AMD. One month after a $500 million round, Cohere added $100 million, lifting its valuation to $7 billion. It also said its Command models now run on AMD Instinct and that AMD will use Cohere internally, signaling a push to diversify compute beyond Nvidia. Source
President Trump signs EO to facilitate TikTok sale. The order approves a plan to sell TikTok’s US business to American investors and pauses DOJ enforcement of the divest-or-ban law for 120 days while it closes. VP JD Vance said TikTok US is valued “around $14 billion,” with Oracle overseeing security and cloud; TikTok’s algorithm and moderation will shift to US control.
Mark Zuckerberg echoes AI bubble warnings. On a recent podcast, Meta’s CEO said a market “collapse” is “definitely a possibility.” The comment aligns with Sam Altman’s caution and a Deutsche Bank note that the AI boom is unsustainable unless tech spending stays “parabolic.”
Utah breaks ground on Ward 250 test reactor. Gov. Spencer Cox says Valar Atomics and the Utah San Rafael Energy Lab have begun construction in Orangeville on a high-temperature test reactor. The project is part of DOE’s Nuclear Reactor Pilot Program, with initial criticality targeted in 2026.
The great value inversion. Azeem Azhar argues core value signals have flipped across education, pensions, private equity, and energy. He frames a shift from scarcity thinking to abundance and a breakdown in value capture, implying institutions must reprice the future and adapt their systems.
YC launches “Early Decision” so students can graduate first. The new track lets students apply while in school, get funded upon acceptance, and join YC after graduation. It reframes the dropout path and helps YC lock in student founders earlier amid intensifying competition for talent.
Meta launches ‘Vibes’ AI video feed. Meta added Vibes, a short-form feed of AI-generated videos inside the Meta AI app and on meta.ai. Users can generate or remix clips, add music and styles, and cross-post to Instagram and Facebook; Meta says early partners include Midjourney and Black Forest Labs. The launch creates a dedicated distribution channel for AI-native short videos across Meta’s apps.
Radiology shows why AI adoption lags. Despite 700+ FDA-cleared imaging models and benchmark wins, US demand for human radiologists is rising because tools underperform outside training data, face strict autonomy rules and insurer limits, and cover only part of the job. The essay argues that closing real-world gaps and aligning regulation, not just better models, will determine deployment.
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